Crypto forecasting research · BTC · ETH · XRP · LINK
Will Bitcoin, Ether, XRP and Chainlink move up, down or sideways over the next 30 days? Below: what our tested models expect for each coin, which model has the best record, and what live Deribit option prices imply for each listed expiry. The research behind it asks whether price history or machine learning can beat a simple base rate.
30-day outlook: what the models expect
Reading the options market
Market-implied, not a forecastProbabilities come from option prices, which include a risk premium (traders pay up for protection). Read them as the market's pricing, not a prediction or advice.
Ranges show quote uncertaintyOptions trade with a bid and an ask. The quote range is every probability consistent with those prices: wide when the market is thin, tight when it is liquid.
“Not quoted” is not 0%Far from today's price no options are quoted, so the market says nothing there. Those targets are marked rather than guessed.
Market snapshot
Every listed expiry at a glance. The median and the 80% range are read off the market-implied curve: 10% of the probability sits below the range and 10% above it.
Explore an asset
Choose an asset and an expiry. Hover the chart for the probability at any price.
Asset
Expiry
Can history or machine learning beat the base rate?
Outcomes